The Mattress Industry Is Resilient, Competitive, and Poised for Recovery

At ISPA Expo 2026, industry leaders gathered to examine the forces shaping the future of the mattress business — from macroeconomic pressures to demographic shifts and evolving retail channels. In a data-heavy session delivered yesterday, Mary Thorpe, Director of Data & Analytics at the International Sleep Products Association (ISPA), and Scott Hackworth, CPA, President of Industry Insights, walked attendees through the latest research and forecasting models used to track the industry.

A Fragmented Industry with Concentrated Production

According to ISPA data, nearly 700 companies are tied to the mattress industry, including producers, component suppliers, and related manufacturers. Yet the structure of the sector reveals a striking imbalance: 93% of companies operate as single-plant or regional businesses, yet national manufacturers control the majority of production.

"A relatively small number of companies are driving three-quarters of production in the United States. But the regional and local companies are critical to local communities, to local economies, and to fulfilling regional retail needs." — Mary Thorpe, ISPA

Rather than weakening the industry, this layered structure fuels competition and specialization. As Thorpe reminded attendees: "There is a way to compete and a way to succeed. You have to be in tune with where you're operating, what customers want, and what value you bring to them."

Geography Shapes Competition

Mattress manufacturing spans the country but clusters in regions where logistics networks and labor availability create advantages. Facilities concentrated in key states benefit from proximity to customers, stronger labor pools, and optimized shipping routes. Companies operating outside those clusters often face longer lead times or higher transportation costs — a structural reality that continues to influence how companies position themselves within the supply chain.

The Consumer: Feeling the Pinch

While structural industry factors remain strong, consumer sentiment tells a more cautious story. Hackworth explained that many macroeconomic indicators remain healthy on paper — unemployment sits at approximately 4.4%, historically very low — yet consumers still feel pressure.

"We're at about 4.4 percent unemployment, which historically is very low. But because the number of available jobs has declined, consumers feel pinched. They worry about whether they'll be able to find another job if something happens." — Scott Hackworth

Real disposable income has grown only modestly after inflation. Savings rates have declined while debt usage has increased. Hackworth noted that Americans continue to spend, but often by relying more heavily on credit — and with more deliberation than in prior cycles.

Housing Remains the Industry's Strongest Indicator

One of the clearest takeaways from the presentation was the powerful relationship between housing activity and mattress demand. Industry Insights has tracked this correlation for more than two decades: when housing starts and home sales rise, mattress shipments follow. New home construction generates new bedroom demand, while existing home sales often trigger mattress replacements.

"If you look at the trend lines, the pattern is eerily consistent. Housing has been a consistently strong predictor for mattress sales in our model." — Scott Hackworth

Mortgage rates remain one of the biggest constraints on housing activity, yet Hackworth noted that even small changes can unlock significant pent-up demand. When the 30-year mortgage rate briefly dipped below 6%, housing activity surged almost immediately. Industry Insights expects housing conditions to gradually improve in the coming years as household formations increase and turnover returns.

Demographics Are Creating a Tailwind

Another long-term force supporting mattress demand is demographic change. The U.S. population is aging rapidly, particularly among consumers over 50 — a group that has both the resources and the motivation to invest in health and wellness. Sleep quality has become a growing focus among older consumers, reinforcing demand for premium sleep products.

"We're seeing a significant expansion in the 50-plus demographic. And that group has both the resources and the motivation to invest in health and wellness." — Scott Hackworth

Premium Products Are Extending Replacement Cycles

One consequence of the industry's shift toward higher-quality mattresses is longer replacement cycles. Consumers who invest in premium products expect them to last. Hackworth said Industry Insights continues to model replacement cycles between seven and ten years, though inflation and housing dynamics are influencing purchasing timing.

Imports Reshaped the Competitive Landscape

Thorpe highlighted the impact of imports on industry dynamics over the past decade. The market has experienced three major phases: rapid import growth from China between 2016 and 2018; supply chain shifts toward Southeast Asia following tariffs between 2019 and 2022; and a stabilization in import volumes from 2022 through 2025. The result is a more competitive environment where companies focus on operational efficiency and differentiation.

"Companies are really looking internally right now. They're focusing on scale, differentiation, and making sure they're operating as efficiently as possible." — Mary Thorpe, ISPA

Mattresses Continue to Anchor Bedroom Retail

Retail data confirms that mattresses remain the centerpiece of the bedroom furniture category. Mattresses account for roughly 40% of bedroom furniture sales — a share that has remained stable for years. Thorpe emphasized the category's unique position: "Mattresses are the most researched item in the bedroom category. They're the most emotionally tied to the consumer and the most physically tied to the consumer."

E-Commerce and Stores Now Work Together

The pandemic accelerated online mattress purchases, but brick-and-mortar retail remains dominant. Consumers now use a hybrid shopping journey that blends both channels — and the path to purchase has become more complex than ever.

"They're doing research online, going into the store, talking to someone, going home and asking ChatGPT if they made the right decision. That's the process now." — Mary Thorpe, ISPA

Even digitally native brands are opening physical locations to complement online sales — a recognition that the tactile nature of the mattress purchase still drives conversion in-store.

Forecast: A Bottom in 2025, Recovery Ahead

Industry Insights' forecasting model suggests the industry may be approaching a turning point. After four consecutive years of declining unit shipments, the outlook begins to stabilize — with modest growth projected for 2026 and 2027.

"We feel like 2025 will likely be the bottom. And then we'll start to see gradual improvement." — Scott Hackworth

Why the Industry Remains Strong

Despite short-term demand pressure, the mattress industry retains several powerful structural advantages. For producers, retailers, and suppliers, the message from ISPA Expo was clear: the industry faces challenges, but the long-term fundamentals remain intact.